Monday, May 31, 2004

India: Coming to a Country Near You

China Sourcing Alert    
Monday, May 31, 2004
Dateline: Qingdao, Shandong, China
 
India:  Coming to a Country Near You!
 
With all the rage about offshoring, let's take a look at nearshoring (see http://tinyurl.com/2d8mm ).
 
As part of their global delivery model (GDM), India's tier one systems integrators (SIs) are extending their offshoring options to include nearshoring in Canada and Mexico (really, Mexico?).  Nearshoring "provides a viable alternative for companies hesitant to move their entire work offshore or for those who are unwilling to bear the high cost of onsite work."  According to an EVP with Cognizant, this seems to hold true especially for large or mission-critical projects requiring 24x7 responsiveness.  (Hmmm ... maybe better suited to BPO than ITO.)  According to an Infosys exec, "a nearshore strategy provides clients the confidence that the software services company's site is just a few hours on a plane trip as compared to nearly a day for visiting an offshore site."  (Hah, I wish it was only "a day."  Perhaps in the weird since of time zone differences.)  Every project Infosys undertakes has a business continuity plan (BCP), which includes a contingency plan that aids in seamless transfer to one or more of their locations.  (Comment:  I wonder how well this REALLY works?  But it sounds good.) 
 
The marketing head of Blue Star Infotech (another Indian SI) noted that companies who do not have "formal systems" for document transfer and management face difficulties in moving projects offshore since project details may not be fully conveyed to offshore development teams.  Nearshore sites bridge this gap.  (My comment:  I'd be leery about taking on projects which aren't adequately speced.  It sounds like a strategy for moving a pending disaster from India to Mexico.)  But a point is well made:  Projects requiring frequent human interaction might be best served with a nearshoring (or onshoring) strategy.  However, it should be noted that the fully-burdened costs for nearshoring may be three times as much as offshoring (using India as the base, so figure six-to-ten times as much as offshoring in China).  This article cites the following billables (figuring India for the offshore component):  Onshore, $100 (per hour, I'll assume); nearshore, $70; offshore, $30 -- and in China, $10-15.  These are numbers to take to heart.  Bottom line:  Frankly, this is more for G2 than something that is actionable by China's SIs.  However, Canada may represent a viable nearshoring destination, especially for clients easily served by Canadian firms (e.g., U.S. clients, either end users or SIs, in the northern U.S. or easily served by a nonstop flight from a major Canadian airport, such as LAX or SFO).  For now, China's SIs should be aware of nearshoring billables and be prepared for either a nearshore or onshore presence if required.
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content in China)
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Outsourcing: The Main Driver for Growth in IT Services?

China Sourcing Alert    
Sunday, May 30, 2004
Dateline: Qingdao, Shandong, China
 
Outsourcing: The Main Driver for Growth in IT Services?
 
If you believe Gartner ( http://tinyurl.com/3b8ol ), "Outsourcing continues to be the main source of growth in IT services, and has become a mainstream business practice for companies of all sizes.  According to Gartner, Inc., in 2004, outsourcing will account for 53 percent of the total worldwide IT services market, and will make up 56 percent of the market by 2007."  Wow!!
 
This is even better:  "Outsourcing is becoming the dominant way that enterprises buy IT services" (my emphasis).  Gartner claims that everyone is rushing to deploy a global delivery model (GDM).  Why?  Answer:  So enterprises can tap into IT resources anytime, anyplace, with one of the objectives being to REDUCE risk.  Their point about risk REDUCTION is interesting since offshoring tends to be viewed as increasing risk, NOT reducing risk.  Clearly, in this case, execution is everything.
 
Gartner goes on to claim that only G2000ish firms will rely on captive development centers and that most firms will do their global sourcing via "the GDM of an outsourcer."
 
Bottom line:  China's SIs need a global delivery model (GDM).  In China, I've seen only one firm with something that truly resembles a GDM.  However, their GDM is strong on project management (matter of fact, their project management skills are on par with IGS, Accenture, EDS, TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Satyam), but fails to address onsite (i.e., in the States) issues.  Another firm has a good onsite presence to serve one specific client (a U.S. F10 company), but they didn't show much in the way of project management or software development management expertise.  They may have both, but it wasn't clear from what I've seen.  Also, the Gartner forecast points, once again, to the ripening of the mid-market.  Mid-market opportunities are boundless.  Solution:  China's SIs should develop a GDM for serving the mid-market in the States, i.e., catered to mid-market end users (CIOs) and mid-tier U.S.-based systems integrators (SIs) focused on servicing mid-market clients.
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content in China)
http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e (AvantGo channel)
 
In China, to automatically subscribe click on http://tinyurl.com/388yf .
 

IBM full court press on Web services

China Sourcing Alert    
Sunday, May 30, 2004
Dateline: Qingdao, Shandong, China
 
IBM Full Court Press on Web Services
 
Gather around the campfire and let me tell you a story about IBM.  When I worked at Microsoft, we had a competitive intelligence/environmental scanning unit which tracked all sorts of topics, including (obviously) our competitors.  I recall that at one point our competitive intelligence on Oracle was seven MONTHS old.  Goes to show how seriously we viewed Oracle!  OTOH, our G2 on IBM was updated a few times each WEEK!!  Shifting gears to my Oracle days, there was one firm we feared the most.  No, NOT SAP (don't make me laugh).  Yep, you guessed it:  IBM.
So why all the fuss about IBM in this posting about Web services?  Reason:  Because of all the fuss IBM is making about Web services.  (See http://tinyurl.com/37vnt .)   "IBM says the worldwide market for consulting projects related to Web services and standards-based application integration--known as service-oriented architectures--is about $15 billion this year and could total $200 billion between now and 2008. The company says it has trained 35,000 consultants in skills related to Web services."  Even if the figure of 35,000 is off by a factor of 10, I'd still be impressed by IBM's commitment.
 
Gartner and IDC have also made some observations about the Web services market that seem to validate IBM's actions.  Gartner (which felt compelled to create its own acronym, "SOBA" -- Service-Oriented Business Applications) predicts that SOBAs will emerge as "the mainstream business application architecture" by 2007, with big wins especially in the supply chain space.  (See http://tinyurl.com/2xx98 .)  IDC ( http://tinyurl.com/2mqhg ) observed that the alphabet soup of Web services is not the end all, be all.  "The attention does not revolve solely around Web services anymore.  Instead, more eyes are turning to toward strategic and long-term decisions around adopting standards-based services-oriented architectures (SOAs)."  To this I say, "Amen."
Bottom line:  As Web services adoption heats up, China's SI's need to get up to speed and learn to play the SOA game.  It is important to note that SOAs are not just the logical extension of Web services protocols, but are key to many apps.  For China's SIs, I'd look carefully at he relationship between SOAs and content management ... and content management (CM) and portals ... and CM and portals and knowledge management (KM).
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content in China)
http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e (AvantGo channel)

Wednesday, May 26, 2004

Mid-Market Mania

China Sourcing Alert    
Wednesday, May 26, 2004
Dateline: Qingdao, Shandong, China
 
Mid-Market Mania
 
EVERYONE is talking up the mid-market these days.  Even I can't resist:  One of my slides for next week's APEC presentation is on the mid-market opportunity for SIs based in China.  Matter of fact, two subject areas dominate the clippings I save for this blog:  Web services and the mid-market.  (Hmmm ... how about Web services for the mid-market?)  In the mid-market space, Forrester seems to be taking a lead among the top four IT advisory services, although IDC is doing a pretty good job, too.  We can expect to hear a lot more from the Stamford and Boston analysts in the months and years ahead.
 
But what is really important is not what the analysts say, but what is happening in the market.  In no particular order, let's see what is happening.  (Actually, I'm presenting this in the order that they're stored on my smartphone using HandStory!)
 
In the "Memo" section of HandStory (which I must have clipped from a source retrieved via AvantGo), I have an article about SAP, courtesy of AMR (see http://tinyurl.com/22f2e and http://tinyurl.com/2cwwl ).  Evidently, SAP is not only expanding its mid-market presence, but using a verticals spin as well.  This is the best approach.  Kudos to SAP!!
 
The next item also goes in the "SMEs meet verticals" category.  It's BEA attempting a spin on IBM's strategy (see http://tinyurl.com/2kw94 ), using VARs and SIs for chasing customers in verticals.  Frankly, the IBM offerings seem a lot more comprehensive.
 
Regarding market size, Forrester states that SMEs are the place to be in 2004, planning to increase their IT spending by 6.6% Y-O-Y, compared to 1.7% among "larger companies."  Spending will focus on hardware, security and information management software.  (Hey Forrester gang, what in the world is "information management software"?  Sounds kind of nebulous.)  They also claim that wireless networking is hot, as are new PC rollouts.  They make a goofy causal claim stating that there is high intention to buy content management and BI software.  Sorry Forrester, but the two are NOT related.  Content management and knowledge management software, yes; content management and BI software, no.  But I get the point -- and concur.  The final takeaway is that Microsoft dominates mindshare for systems management (is this what Forrester means by "information management"?), content management and BI software.  Definitely worth reading!  See http://tinyurl.com/2o97r .
 
Bottom line:  The mid-market is hot and a verticals approach using SIs and VARs is the best approach in reaching SMEs.  For SIs in China, team up with the 200-1,000 largest SIs in the States to take on sub-contracting work in specific verticals (and, most importantly) with specific platforms.  (More on this in a forthcoming China Sourcing Monitor feature.)
 
BTW, I've chosen to use "mid-market" versus "midmarket."  Why?  Because I did a test using my Google News bookmarklet and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of "mid-market."  A little tip if you're wondering whether to use a hypen or not.
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
http://www.itestrategies.com (blog) & http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content in China)
http://tinyurl.com/3dcej (AvantGo channel)
 
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Tuesday, May 25, 2004

Notice to everyone receiving this message

China Sourcing Alert    
Monday, May 24, 2004
Dateline: Qingdao, Shandong, China
 
After today's postings (and there might be as many as four postings today, although there will generally be three or four each week), I will be switching Bloget to a notification only service.
 
If you would like to receive the complete, full-text of each posting, please subscribe by clicking on the following link:  http://tinyurl.com/388yf
 
If you would only like to receive notifications of each new posting, then please remain on this Bloglet list.
 
If you would like to be removed from the Bloglet list, please follow the instructions near the bottom of this message.
 
Back in the Blogging Biz
 
A lot has happened in the few weeks since my last posting.  For one thing, I've created a Yahoo! Groups site ( http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa ) which is, for all practical purposes, a mirror of my Blogger blog.  Most importantly, it allows subscribers in China to access my Blogger content (and my Yahoo! Groups site will eventually be published in both English and Chinese).  It also provides a place for me to park various files, bookmarks, even photos.  For example, my bio can be accessed via http://tinyurl.com/3y3vt (with a bio in Chinese to be uploaded to the "Files" section next week) and a feature which appeared in The Los Angeles Times can be accessed at http://tinyurl.com/2zvnp .  I've also created an AvantGo channel ( http://tinyurl.com/3dcej ) for those of you so inclined to read CSA anytime, anywhere.  For what it's worth, IMHO content-rich blogs make good reading on a PDA and smartphone; matter of fact, I'd say that blogs are a natural fit for these form factors.
 
From the content creation perspective (versus content delivery), I've decided to split into two blogs, China Sourcing Alert ( http://tinyurl.com/azkh ) for commentary on newsworthy items (with a publication frequency of about 1-2 times per week) and China Sourcing Monitorhttp://tinyurl.com/2bk7r ) for in-depth commentary (with a publication frequency of about 6-8 times per year).  In the past three weeks I've also met with three of the five CMM5 systems integrators based in China, and with the IT outsourcing heads of China's largest software company.  Exciting times in China!
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
U.S. tel: +001.650.618.1475
China tel: +011.86.(0)532.577.8957
http://www.itestrategies.com (blog) & http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content in China)
http://tinyurl.com/3dcej (AvantGo channel)
 
To automatically subscribe to our notification service, enter your e-mail address on the form at:
 
http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com .  Archives may be retrieved at the same URL and at http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa .
 
In China, to automatically subscribe click here.
 
As noted in my .sig file, you may also add China Sourcing Alert as a XML feed or an an AvantGo channel for your PDA/smartphone.  (BTW, the AvantGo channel uses a proxy server and provides access to CSA in China.)
 
P.S.--In order to save a bit of time and to make blogging a more practical reality, I'm posting to Blogger and Yahoo! Groups simultaneously (and my AvantGo channel should automatically kick in).  I have no idea what will happen with formatting, however.


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The IT Market in China (including a Message to Redmond)

China Sourcing Alert   
Tuesday, May 25, 2004
Dateline: Qingdao, Shandong, China
 
The IT Market in China
 
Time for a couple of side comments about the domestic market in China.  It seems that just about everyone wants to set-up shop in China, and Shanghai (for obvious reasons) is the place to be, even though a lot of the larger U.S. software companies have already established their presence in Beijing.  So I have two comments:  IMHO, Shanghai is tops.  But it's not the only option.  However, it appears that many Americans, especially those in the software biz, think that the only options are Shanghai or Beijing.  Case in point:  I suspect that Guy and another pro-China VC, Jim Beyer with Accel Partners (see http://tinyurl.com/37rvp ) have been to Shanghai (and perhaps to a couple of cities in two adjacent provinces), Beijing (and another city nearby Beijing) and perhaps one other city.  But I know for a fact that they haven't visited what are arguably not only largest systems integration and software development firms in China, but those best positioned to assist U.S. firms looking for offshoring talent.  How do I know this?  Simple:  Because I've asked the firms!!  I guess you have to start somewhere and I'd agree that Beijing and Shanghai are perhaps the "necessary condition" choices for doing due diligence.  But there are many, many other options besides Shanghai and Beijing (as areas) and firms based in Shanghai and Beijing.  My other point pertains to Microsoft GCA (Greater China Area).  I have a lot of faith in Microsoft and still hold my ESPP shares, but their China strategy is goofy.  They think that they're going to capture the domestic market through all sorts of high profile alliances and partnerships.  Think again, Microsoft.  My gut tells me that the folks in China know the reality, but Redmond isn't privy to their secret.  Again, I have a lot of faith in Microsoft and suspect that they might find a solution to their China dilemma:  100% market share and zero revenues.  But their strategy in play is doomed to defeat.  Besides the Evermore (see a Pacific Epoch news item at http://tinyurl.com/2fkak ) and open source threat, their strategy is simply dead wrong.  Trying to impose the will of Redmond upon China's software industry simply won't work.  Message to Redmond:  Try listening to what China's software companies want from you!!  Trust me, it is NOT at all what you think and what you seem to be imposing on them.
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
U.S. tel: +001.650.618.1475
China tel: +011.86.(0)532.577.8957
http://www.itestrategies.com (blog) & http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content in China)
http://tinyurl.com/3dcej (AvantGo channel)
 
To automatically subscribe to our notification service, enter your e-mail address on the form at:
 
http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com .  Archives may be retrieved at the same URL and at http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa .
 
In China, to automatically subscribe click here.
 
As noted in my .sig file, you may also add China Sourcing Alert as a XML feed or an an AvantGo channel for your PDA/smartphone.  (BTW, the AvantGo channel uses a proxy server and provides access to CSA in China.)
 
 
P.S.--Pacific Epoch [ http://www.pacificepoch.com ] is my favorite source for news on China's domestic IT market.  I encourage everyone to subscribe to their mailing list.


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A Snapshot and Armchair View of China: Not Much Value-Added

China Sourcing Alert    
Monday, May 24, 2004
Dateline: Qingdao, Shandong, China
 
A Snapshot and Armchair View of China:  Not Much Value-Added (and Dead Wrong on Some Key Points, Too)
 
Since I'm going to cross post to the AlwaysOn Network (http://www.alwayson-network.com ), I've decided to comment on a post which appeared on the AO Network on 5 May.  Guy Kawasaki, managing director of Garage Technology Ventures, kicked off his post titled, "What's the Deal with China?  Opportunity knocks; know the rules of the game " ( http://tinyurl.com/yrqzr ) and four others chimed in.  (Disclosure:  I've known Guy since my Microsoft daze [no sic], we both taught Sunday School at the same church, and we were even the keynote and locknote presenters at a network marketing annual gig.  Hence, it's safe to say that I'm pulling my punches ... even if the title for this section appears otherwise.)  My analysis will take a point/counterpoint perspective.
 
Guy started out by noting that Shanghai is "kicking butt."  I concur 100%.  But then he begs the question, "does the United States have a chance against China?"  Give me a break!!  First, it is important to note, especially for those of us in or from Silicon Valley or the 128 corridor, that Shanghai is NOT representative of China-at-large.  Shanghai no more represents China than Silicon Valley represents the States.  Besides Shanghai, Dalian (which I've mentioned in a previous post) and a few other cities (which I'll mention in future posts; I'm deliberately keeping some info close to the chest), nobody is "kicking butt."  A lot of dreams, but in fact they're mere allusions.  I just don't see it in China.  Shanghai, Dalian and a few other places, yes; China in general, no.  I'll pick on an easy target:  Even though the Chinese government has afforded the Hainan province with special status, the Hawaii of China is NOT going to become a tech hub.  There is not the same breadth of tech talent in China as there is in the States, so it's silly (almost absurd) to talk about the greatness of China.  Think by region first, city next.  But a few regions and cities will not be able to match the dynamism of the States for at least another fifty years (barring some unforeseen natural disaster, massive terrorism, et al).  Remember, you're hearing this from China's IT sourcing evangelist, too!!  First China has to beat India; then it can worry about the States.  READ THIS LAST SENTENCE CLOSELY:  THIS IS WHAT THE GAME IS REALLY ALL ABOUT.  This might seem a bit surprising, but I can see Chinese companies cooperating with Indian companies in targeting the domestic market in China.  (Fact is, I *already* see this -- and it might be China + India vs. the States for China's domestic market.)  But in the battle for global dominance, it's China vs. India.
 
Joseph Chamie, the director of the population division of the UN's Department for Economic and Social Affairs, added his two cents.  Nothing new.  On one point he is dead wrong, though.  He stated that the Chinese "have all the values the Americans have."  Another "give me a break."  (I feel like John Stossel.)  A key problem I find, again sans a few regions/cities, is that there is a limited notion of quality.  Life in China kind of sucks and I live in one of the nicer cities in China (Qingdao) and in one of the nicer areas within the city (the CBD; I call it "Juscodao") and in one of the nicer buildings within the area (a penthouse-style townhouse).  And I can trace back the reasons for why life in China kind of sucks to quality consciousness in general.  The Chinese, like everyone else, like good quality.  The difference is that they accept poor quality without a blink of an eye.  (Not everywhere in China, but in most places.)  Will the Chinese (as a whole) be more quality conscious as per capita incomes increase?  Maybe, probably.  But for China, it's a long, long way to Tipperary.
 
I agree with just about everything said by Irwin Federman, a general partner at US Venture Partners, but I'll take him to task on one point.  Mr. Federman stated that China is hot NOW.  I disagree.  India is hot NOW.  China, however, is getting warmer each day.  The APEC is holding their tech conference and exhibition next week and I'm the speaker on global sourcing, with a focus on IT sourcing in China.  (I'm in good company.  There are only four speakers on IT issues and two of the others are the heads of IBM and EDS in China.)  One of my slides quotes from a DiamondCluster report.  (I'm going to upload my presentation to http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa AFTER I give it; you can read the quote for what it's worth.)  To paraphrase, the report accurately points out that China is on everyone's radar, but the images are fuzzy at best.  It's a stretch to say that China is hot, but one of my missions is to make China hotter -- and clarify the images.
 
Aaron Gershenberg, a managing director for Silicon Valley Bank, then added his two cents.  Nothing to challenge, but I'd like to expand upon his comments about the VC "industry" in China.  First, there's a VC industry in China which has almost nothing to do with Silicon Valley's VC industry.  Americans tend to view the VC industry as a Menlo Park phenomena, but China has a venture investing base which is very different from that in the States.  Can Silicon Valley VCs successfully play the China card?  Maybe.  Draper is trying.  But nobody can claim success.  And even if there is a bit of successful venture investing from the Sand Hill Road gang, I doubt it will amount to very much for at least another twenty years.  Yes, twenty years (maybe thirty or fifty ... if ever).  The clubbiness of Bay area VCs isn't a match with the social networking structure in China.  (VCs, take this to heart.)  If there are successes, it will be through investments in firms started by Chinese engineers and scientists who have been educated and trained in the States -- probably at Stanford  ;-) -- who have returned home.  Remember, most of the larger publicly-traded Internet plays based in China were started by Chinese nationals who were educated and trained in the States.  But how many of their ventures were backed by American VCs?  Sadly, not many.  Maybe this will change, but I wouldn't hold my breath.  I just don't see John Doerr as a frequent local diner eating things he has never seen before.  And, as VCs will be the first to admit, you can't manage this business by remote control.  Maybe through affiliated funds and the like (the Draper approach), but I'm skeptical.  Worth a try, perhaps, if the U.S. VC is willing to have a local presence in China.
 
Craig Johnson, a Silicon Valley icon, closed with his comments.  He's bullish on Silicon Valley.  So am I.  He feels it is the best place in the world to start a high tech company.  So do I.  But he hints that China may have its own distinct advantages.  We've all read Michael Porter ad nauseum, but how many of us have read his Competitive Advantage of Nations?  And just think about what the title implies, i.e., that there are competitive advantages for each nation.  China has a lot of bright, talented, and very, very young software engineers and programmers.  As the Indian software industry moves up the food chain, there are a lot of opportunities for China.  Will it be China vs. the Czech Republic or Russia?  (Forget the Philippines; they're yesterday's news.)  Sometimes, but the larger issue is China vs. India. 
 
Didn't sound like I was pulling my punches?  Trust me, I did.  However, I want to applaud Guy & company for dealing with the real issue:  Is China open for business?  It's NOT about the nonsense coming out of Beltway talking heads (e.g., job loss); it's all about businessBottom line:  In the final analysis, I'm VERY bullish on China.  In several areas (e.g., R&D outsourcing), China is on par with India TODAY.  (For R&D outsourcing, there are pros and cons for both China and India, but they pretty much balance out.  It really depends on specific needs.)  And in many other areas, e.g., custom application development, there are numerous (okay, a handful of) SIs based in China which can serve American CIOs at a much lower cost and with equal quality of the Bangalore bunch.  Come to China -- and be prepared for the ride of your life!!
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
U.S. tel: +001.650.618.1475
China tel: +011.86.(0)532.577.8957
http://www.itestrategies.com (blog) & http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content in China)
http://tinyurl.com/3dcej (AvantGo channel)
 
To automatically subscribe to our notification service, enter your e-mail address on the form at:
 
http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com .  Archives may be retrieved at the same URL and at http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa .
 
In China, to automatically subscribe click here.
 
As noted in my .sig file, you may also add China Sourcing Alert as a XML feed or an an AvantGo channel for your PDA/smartphone.  (BTW, the AvantGo channel uses a proxy server and provides access to CSA in China.)
 


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